Ares Capital: Hold As Portfolio Growth Momentum Fades (Archive)
ARCC’s reasonable valuation offsets slowing portfolio growth and rising credit-risk signals.
This 5-Minute Pitch was originally published on Seeking Alpha. It is shared here to showcase my work and track record. I also publish full 5-Minute Pitches on this site. This will be behind a paywall, accessible to Hunter Tier members.
Elevator Pitch
- Weak M&A activity is constraining Ares Capital’s deal flow. Management mentioned a pickup in transaction reviews in June, but this is a soft indicator and not as important as investment commitments.
- Net investment commitments declined in Q2, while backlog and pipeline have trended lower over the past 3 quarters.
- Rising non-accrual indicators, interest receivables, and portfolio-company leverage warrant closer credit monitoring.
- ARCC trades near book value. Its premium to other BDC peers has reduced, and arguably, it deserves a slight premium due to its larger scale and incumbent borrower relationships.
- Technicals indicate potential near-term upside, but nearby range resistance may limit the duration and magnitude of gains.
Read the full article here.
