TSMC Is Relentlessly Getting Stronger, And The Market Is Mispricing It (Archive)

This 5-Minute Pitch was originally published on Seeking Alpha before the launch of the Hunting Alphas website. It is shared here to showcase my previous work and track record. New 5-Minute Pitches published on this site will not be disseminated anywhere else.

Elevator Pitch

• TSM is rapidly gaining foundry market share and now has a credible path to high 40s, or even 50%, 5‑year revenue CAGR, helped by Nvidia's incremental H200 demand for China shipments.
• TSM's 2026 price hikes and better‑than‑expected 2nm yields support a plausible new gross margin plateau above 60% from Q4 FY25 onward.
• TSM is accelerating its second Arizona fab, with 3nm production now targeted for 2027 instead of 2028, pulling forward advanced‑node US revenue.
• However, potential Taiwanese export restrictions could restrict leading‑edge node deployment overseas, slowing the revenue ramp from TSM's faster US fab build‑out.
• My valuation estimate leads me to 50-85% upside. I think the market is clearly mispricing TSM stock. The technicals also show an ideal buy setup.

Read the full article here.