This Is How You Value Tesla (Archive)

This 5-Minute Pitch was originally published on Seeking Alpha before the launch of the Hunting Alphas website. It is shared here to showcase my previous work and track record. New 5-Minute Pitches published on this site will not be disseminated anywhere else.

Elevator Pitch

• Tesla, Inc. is making promising progress on scaling robotaxis, with unsupervised rides beginning in Austin and further rollout updates likely to dominate the upcoming earnings call.
• Favorable revenue mix shifts toward robotaxis and FSD subscriptions could structurally expand Tesla’s gross margins from sub-20% toward 40-50% over the long term.
• A reverse DCF and segment-level earnings build suggest Tesla’s current valuation embeds roughly 24% earnings CAGR over 15 years.
• Granular 2040 earnings estimates for robotaxis, humanoid robots, and legacy auto+energy add up to about $159 billion of potential annual earnings, which is slightly above what the market is implying.
• Technical analysis of TSLA versus the S&P 500 shows a pattern of higher lows and a potential breakout setup, indicating a constructive near- to medium-term risk-reward profile.

Read the full article here.