Nvidia Stock: Near Term Growth Is Getting Priced In (Archive)

This 5-Minute Pitch was originally published on Seeking Alpha before the launch of the Hunting Alphas website. It is shared here to showcase my previous work and track record. New 5-Minute Pitches published on this site will not be disseminated anywhere else.

Elevator Pitch

• As feared in my Q2 FY25 preview note, Nvidia Corporation failed to deliver a meaningful revenue guidance beat, which led to a 7% after-hours fall post yesterday's earnings release.
• In-line Q3 revenue guidance and in-line revenue results vs. the Wall Street whisper numbers indicate that Nvidia's high growth is being priced in, at least over the couple of quarters.
• A dip in the gross margins and a flattish outlook for the rest of FY25 puts a spanner in the works for my earlier margin expansion thesis.
• Nvidia's 1-yr forward P/E ratio remains high and mostly unchanged for now at more than 40x and technically vs. the S&P500, there are signs of exhaustion on the monthly upward momentum.
• I recognize that there are early signs of strong uptake in Blackwell orders. I believe this can lead to growth surprises again from 2025 onwards.

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