Nvidia: Not Yet A Buy, Here's What To Wait For (Archive)

This 5-Minute Pitch was originally published on Seeking Alpha before the launch of the Hunting Alphas website. It is shared here to showcase my previous work and track record. New 5-Minute Pitches published on this site will not be disseminated anywhere else.

Elevator Pitch

• I am bullish on Nvidia Corporation's growth prospects due to healthy RPO growth, a 3.2% growth increment from Stargate demand, and encouraging growth signals from a key supplier.
• Gross margins are guided to dip almost 300bps in Q1 FY26, but I believe there are reasons to trust management's assurances that it would rebound back toward the mid-70s later.
• TSMC's avoidance of hefty tariffs benefits NVDA, but rising receivable days and tariff risks remain key concerns to watch as it spell a deterioration in FCF margins.
• NVDA's valuations are attractive and close to 4-yr trough lows at below 30.0x 1-yr forward P/E.
• But the technical charts suggest it may be better to wait a bit longer for a buy signal near monthly support, which is still a 13% price drop away.

Read the full article here.