Micron: I Missed The Boat, And It Seems Too Far To Catch Up (Archive)

Micron’s HBM-led surge looks powerful, but rich valuations keep me sidelined for now.

Micron: I Missed The Boat, And It Seems Too Far To Catch Up (Archive)

This 5-Minute Pitch was originally published on Seeking Alpha before the launch of the Hunting Alphas website. It is shared here to showcase my previous work and track record. New 5-Minute Pitches published on this site will not be disseminated anywhere else.

Elevator Pitch

  • Micron is on track to generate almost 100% YoY growth in HBM revenues and continued high growth in FY26. The company is raising its bets here via further capex.
  • Favorable mix-shift effects can drive gross margin expansion.
  • Inventory efficiency has been improving, supporting expectations for double-digit free cash flow margins in the upcoming quarters.
  • I like these positive fundamentals, but I do not like MU's premium, higher-than-usual valuation vs. competitors. Also, the technicals vs. SPX500 point to balanced bullish and bearish forces.
  • Customer concentration (likely NVIDIA) is a growth asset for now but remains a key thing to monitor as it may become a risk liability as well.

Read the full article here.

Disclosures and Disclaimers

Past performance ≠ future results. Not investment advice. See full Disclaimer.