M/I Homes Is Not A Good Buy Now (Archive)

This 5-Minute Pitch was originally published on Seeking Alpha before the launch of the Hunting Alphas website. It is shared here to showcase my previous work and track record. New 5-Minute Pitches published on this site will not be disseminated anywhere else.

Elevator Pitch

• M/I Homes was one of my top performing picks in 2023, generating almost 120% alpha over the S&P500. But I think the alpha bull run has run its course:
• The homebuilding backlog is shrinking, which warns of a slowdown in future revenues.
• There are downside risks to both gross margins and EBIT margins due to material and labor cost pressures and higher opex cost intensity.
• Technical analysis also suggests that there is powerful resistance, halting progress of a continued alpha move in the stock vs the S&P500.
• However, M/I Homes trades at a 32% discount to its peer group median multiples, which is what keeps me from expressing a clear bearish view on the stock.

Read the full article here.