Berkshire Hathaway: Why I Still Think It Will Likely Underperform The Market (Archive)

Apple concentration, manufacturing weakness and fair-value valuation point to negative alpha ahead.

Berkshire Hathaway: Why I Still Think It Will Likely Underperform The Market (Archive)

This 5-Minute Pitch was originally published on Seeking Alpha before the launch of the Hunting Alphas website. It is shared here to showcase my previous work and track record. New 5-Minute Pitches published on this site will not be disseminated anywhere else.

Elevator Pitch

  • Berkshire Hathaway has outperformed the S&P 500 by 6.75% since my last article's "Strong Sell" view. However, I am retaining my bearish view on the stock.
  • The numbers show that Apple is a key needle-mover for the Company. Stagnating iPhone sales and uncompelling valuations are material headwinds.
  • The US manufacturing sector has been contracting for many consecutive months, and this is an overhang for Berkshire's largest operating EBIT contributing business segment.
  • An updated P/B calculation taking stock of equity investments' movements says Berkshire is trading near the fair value range, which is a risk to the bear case.
  • Relative technical analysis of BRK.A vs. the S&P 500 points towards negative alpha ahead.

Read the full article here.

Disclosures and Disclaimers

Past performance ≠ future results. Not investment advice. See full Disclaimer.