Apple: Quantifying The Impact Of 25% Tariffs On Gross Margins (Archive)

Trump’s tariff threats erode Apple’s margins while stagnant iPhone growth limits upside

Apple: Quantifying The Impact Of 25% Tariffs On Gross Margins (Archive)

This 5-Minute Pitch was originally published on Seeking Alpha before the launch of the Hunting Alphas website. It is shared here to showcase my previous work and track record. New 5-Minute Pitches published on this site will not be disseminated anywhere else.

Elevator Pitch

  • Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Apple products made outside the US could erode gross margins by up to 490bps, invalidating my earlier margin expansion thesis.
  • iPhone 16 Plus adoption rates are underperforming vs prior series, and iPhone revenue growth remains stagnant, with recent iPhone sales this year missing consensus expectations.
  • AAPL stock is at relative fair value vs its comps so there's not much margin of safety for buys.
  • The AAPL vs S&P500 charts show no bullish signals yet; it still has some small downside potential as it moves toward a monthly support level.

Read the full article here.

Disclosures and Disclaimers

Past performance ≠ future results. Not investment advice. See full Disclaimer.