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# This Is How You Value Tesla (Archive)
- URL: https://www.huntingalphas.com/this-is-how-you-value-tesla-archive/
- Published: 2026-01-25T13:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-02-28T19:58:59.000Z
- Description: Robotaxis and humanoids drive Tesla's long-term earnings, making today's valuation surprisingly reasonable.
- Author: Vish (Hunting Alphas)
- Tags: 5-Minute Pitches, #noindex, Archive, #sa-origin, TSLA, Consumer

*This 5-Minute Pitch was originally published on Seeking Alpha before the launch of the Hunting Alphas website. It is shared here to showcase my previous work and track record. New 5-Minute Pitches published on this site will not be disseminated anywhere else.*

## Elevator Pitch

- Tesla, Inc. is making promising progress on scaling robotaxis, with unsupervised rides beginning in Austin and further rollout updates likely to dominate the upcoming earnings call.
- Favorable revenue mix shifts toward robotaxis and FSD subscriptions could structurally expand Tesla’s gross margins from sub-20% toward 40-50% over the long term.
- A reverse DCF and segment-level earnings build suggest Tesla’s current valuation embeds roughly 24% earnings CAGR over 15 years.
- Granular 2040 earnings estimates for robotaxis, humanoid robots, and legacy auto+energy add up to about $159 billion of potential annual earnings, which is slightly above what the market is implying.
- Technical analysis of TSLA versus the S&P 500 shows a pattern of higher lows and a potential breakout setup, indicating a constructive near- to medium-term risk-reward profile.

Read the full article [here](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4862328-this-is-how-you-value-tesla?ref=huntingalphas.com).

#### Disclosures and Disclaimers

**Past performance ≠ future results. Not investment advice. See* [**full Disclaimer*](https://www.huntingalphas.com/disclaimer/)**.*