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# ASML: Why I'm Bearish Heading Into Earnings (Archive)
- URL: https://www.huntingalphas.com/asml-why-im-bearish-heading-into-earnings-archive-copy/
- Published: 2025-01-28T17:17:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-02-28T10:46:22.000Z
- Description: Bearish on ASML as capex downgrades, DeepSeek, valuation and technicals cloud earnings outlook.
- Author: Vish (Hunting Alphas)
- Tags: 5-Minute Pitches, #noindex, Archive, #sa-origin, ASML, Tech

*This 5-Minute Pitch was originally published on Seeking Alpha before the launch of the Hunting Alphas website. It is shared here to showcase my previous work and track record. New 5-Minute Pitches published on this site will not be disseminated anywhere else.*

## Elevator Pitch

- My prior “Sell” view on ASML Holding N.V. has been playing out as the stock has not only underperformed the S&P 500 but fallen on a total shareholder return basis as well.
- Heading into Q4 FY24 earnings, I am retaining a bearish view, as more capex expectation downgrades among key foundries suggests a weak demand outlook for ASML.
- Based on historical beat vs. miss surprise data, I think ASML may surprise positively on results but disappoint in some guidance metrics.
- The bear case I see in DeepSeek is that spending on compute capacity may be reduced, which could be an eventual headwind for ASML.
- ASML stock's valuations are at a premium vs. other semiconductor equipment comps. Relative technicals vs. the S&P 500 are still in a bearish flow.

Read the full article [here](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752587-asml-why-im-bearish-heading-into-earnings?ref=huntingalphas.com).

#### Disclosures and Disclaimers

**Past performance ≠ future results. Not investment advice. See* [**full Disclaimer*](https://www.huntingalphas.com/disclaimer/)**.*