Alphabet Is Managing AI Capex Well And Seems Highly Underrated (Archive)

Alphabet’s aggressive AI capex and equity raise are mispriced, leaving shares clearly undervalued.

Alphabet Is Managing AI Capex Well And Seems Highly Underrated (Archive)

This 5-Minute Pitch was originally published on Seeking Alpha. It is shared here to showcase my work and track record. I also publish full 5-Minute Pitches on this site. This will be behind a paywall, accessible to Hunter Tier members.

Elevator Pitch

  • Alphabet is ramping AI infrastructure capex, temporarily compressing free cash flow while positioning for long-term leadership in AI compute.
  • The equity-funded $85B capital raise reflects a preference to avoid higher future debt costs and to share AI project risk with shareholders.
  • Alphabet is losing some ad share, and YouTube RoAS is weakening as it faces some regulatory headwinds. So this is a risk to watch.
  • Overall profit growth still far exceeds the implied 15% 7-yr earnings CAGR the market is pricing in, suggesting undervaluation of its shares.
  • There is no reason to not follow the strong technical uptrend.

Read the full article here.

Spreadsheet Model